In creating a post explaining the relevance and prospect of using prediction markets in the study of logical uncertainty I produced a graph showing an example of how the answer to the question of if the 100th digit of pi is a 7, might be evaluated if each digit of pi needed to be expanded one after the other. This is an accompanying post, something of an appendix to the future post, so might not make much sense on its own. A possible graph of the stock price over time, assuming that to get to the 100th digit you need to expand each digit. I’ve included a few different models: You can see that here for all models the price starts at 50¢ falls to 10¢ and from that point, the models diverge somewhat in their price prediction. Explaining the models There are two underlying models which lead to the production of all the lines in these graphs. The first is the model that as there are 10 possible values a digit of pi could take, that the probability of the 100th digit being 7 is 10%. The...
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